The 21st Century Evolution
by Glenn Serafin
--INSIDE RADIO.com, Wednesday,
September 26, 2007
Where are we and where are we
going?
First, a little history.
Duopoly in 1992 was all about generating greater
profits through expense savings. Telecom in 1996 was mostly about driving
profits with higher revenues.
Until these seismic changes, radio stations were
owned mostly by two groups, multi-media companies and conglomerates like GE, RKO
and Westinghouse in large markets, and “mom and pop” operators in the medium to
small markets.
Big banks and investment companies “found” radio
in the mid-1980s. They weathered the storm of the 1989-1991 recession and, under
the new ownership rules that followed, they really charged into the industry
thereafter in the 1990s, when radio became an “investment.”
The new models worked for a long time. Stations
were aggregated into clusters, huge radio companies were built, revenues and
profits skyrocketed, and fortunes were made.
Exit the “old guard,” entrepreneurs who cut their
teeth in the business and who now are in their 60s and 70s.
Enter the Internet, digital technology, voice
tracking, cost-benefit analysis and investment capital with twenty-something
MBAs demanding weekly sales reports.
Not to toot my own horn, but I worked in local
radio and later, as a young AP salesman, I made over 5,000 separate, in-person
visits to radio and TV stations. By contrast, a few of the new breed of radio
investor never set foot in a station until they decide to buy one. The next
generation of entrepreneurs in their 30s and 40s are captive to this new
paradigm. They have no choice. Deals to buy competitive clusters today are too
expensive to fight the money. Don’t get me wrong. It is good that investment
capital is drawn to our industry and a big reason I have been successful. But
radio has evolved. It is bigger, more complicated and more
expensive.
So, where are we?
We are decompressing after six very tough years
of slow growth and sometimes no growth. In some cases we relied on technology,
and not people. In misguided efforts to be tops in the demo, we duplicated or
homogenized formats, or made changes in programming that simply didn’t work. We
can’t (or refuse to) attract new listeners, many of them young. We fight for
revenues with a hungry and growing Internet. Until recently our leaders have not
been very vocal or visible, but thankfully that is changing. While I don’t
perceive satellite radio as a threat, changing audience measurement, HD
conversion, iPods and the battle over performer’s royalties are more
challenges.
That is now. What will
come?
Actually, under the circumstances we are doing
just fine by comparison to other “old media.” In Wall Street parlance, we are in
the later stages of a transition from a “growth business” to a “value business.”
This has been coming for some time, but the handwriting is on the wall now that
Merrill Lynch, for one, has greatly modified its method of valuing broadcasting
companies to more heavily weight Free Cash Flow (FCF), and Citadel’s Farid
Suleman stating recently, according to press reports, that he intends to return
50% of FCF to his shareholders next year and 75% of FCF annually thereafter. A
number of public radio companies already pay regular dividends. In this
transition values expressed as multiples of revenue and cash flow moderate, and
our PE ratios more closely resemble utility stocks, or even less.
All this said, the industry and the marketplace
that supports it simply are evolving. The forces of a free market are at work.
Some of the results are not pretty. Almost all of our stocks are down. Some
investors are unhappy. Some deals are imploding, but they are mostly the results
of bad deal making and not a fading terrestrial radio industry. The sub-prime
mess has sent a chill through the capital markets, but that will be temporary.
After this spasm (and we all hope it ends quickly), we’ll get back to business
and adjust to the needs and wants of our listeners and the new financial
metrics, as we always do.
In fact, it’s already
happening!
Our great strengths are that we are wireless, we
are everywhere and we are (or can be) local, local, local. Even stations that
are music intensive or those that rely heavily on nationally syndicated
programming can be local, local, local if they fill their local program time
with adequate doses of local news, weather, traffic and sports. The Internet is
powerful, but it needs media like radio, especially radio, to push users its
way.
Our hundreds and hundreds of good radio companies
operated by great management and talent repeatedly generate dependably strong
revenues and high cash flow margins. So, by comparison to other industries, we
truly are envied, which is why there never will be a lack of entrepreneurs,
investors, bankers and others who want to be in the radio business.
I just counted. I have nine radio receivers in my
home, one in almost every room. Perhaps I am different from most listeners, but
I consider radio to be my “friend.” I have two favorite radio stations, but no
favorite TV station or favorite cable TV channel. My time spent listening (TSL)
is huge because I am drawn to good content.
We are adjusting and, with good content, we will
succeed. That is the future.
--Glenn M. Serafin is president of Serafin Bros.,
Inc.,
a broadcast brokerage & finance firm.
The opinions expressed are his own.